Luton Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

Luton Town
1-1 HT 0-1
Nottingham Forest
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.07
6+ Goals
12%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.61
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
9%
12.2
X/1
14%
5.83
X/2
15%
5.82
X/X
10%
4.91
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
2/2
15%
3.6
2/X
6%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luton Town v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 40%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.75/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.42
-27% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +35%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
38.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
37.5 Crosses 29.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
263 Passes 352
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-2 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNP
15.04.2022 Luton Town Luton Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
23.11.2021 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-0 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
02.03.2021 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
28.10.2020 Luton Town Luton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
19.01.2020 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 1-1 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL

Luton Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
1-1
AWAY Nottingham Forest
0.58 xG 1.98
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
357 Passes 214
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town and Nottingham Forest shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Luton Town had 60% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 40%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.58 to 1.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luton Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Luton Town and 1.00 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest?

Luton Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 39%, draw 25%, Nottingham Forest 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luton Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luton Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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