Monza 1-0 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 16 Mar 2024

Monza
1-0 HT 1-0
Cagliari
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Monza vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 30% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.65
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
13%
7.55
X/X
8%
4.71
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
12%
5.54
2/X
10%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-8.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.32/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.65
-4% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.5 Crosses 20.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Monza vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Cagliari
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.72 xG 1.61
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 10
444 Passes 243
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 1-0 Monza Monza İTA
11.03.2001 Monza Monza 1-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
22.10.2000 Cagliari Cagliari 2-1 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTB

Monza 1-0 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-0
AWAY Cagliari
1.03 xG 0.42
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 7
467 Passes 247
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza edged past Cagliari 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Monza made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Monza had 62% of the ball to Cagliari's 38%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.03 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monza and 1.00 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Monza vs Cagliari?

Monza 1-0 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Monza 39%, draw 27%, Cagliari 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monza), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monza) ✓ Under 2.5
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