Salernitana 0-1 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.18
6+ Goals
10%
20.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.13
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
14%
6.71
X/2
12%
4.64
X/X
12%
4.1
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.04
2/X
10%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+15% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
291 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 81%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.3 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lecce
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.95 xG 1.73
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
273 Passes 381
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-0 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
27.01.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-2 HT 1-2 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
16.09.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 1-2 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
02.04.2021 Lecce Lecce 2-0 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
15.12.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 1-1 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
18.08.2019 Lecce Lecce 4-0 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
0-1
AWAY Lecce
1.19 xG 1.24
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
616 Passes 217
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 20
32 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce nicked a narrow win over Salernitana 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Lecce made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Salernitana had 71% of the ball to Lecce's 29%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.19 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Salernitana and 2.00 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Lecce?

Salernitana 0-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 33%, draw 28%, Lecce 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lecce), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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