Chicago Fire 4-3 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.69
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 28% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.54
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
13%
4.43
X/2
12%
7.87
X/X
14%
4.97
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
12%
5.68
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.8pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +26%
1.55/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.54
-1% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
17.4 Crosses 15.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
1W-1D-4L
AWAY CF Montreal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.18
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
302 Passes 364
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
13.07.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-0 HT 3-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
14.09.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 3-2 HT 3-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
28.08.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-2 HT 0-2 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
19.09.2021 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
29.05.2021 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-1 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
4-3
AWAY CF Montreal
2.23 xG 2.97
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 9
12 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
481 Passes 272
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire squeezed past CF Montreal 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Chicago Fire found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 62% of the ball to CF Montreal's 38%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.23 to 2.97 — on chances, CF Montreal could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CF Montreal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.33 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal?

Chicago Fire 4-3 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 40%, draw 29%, CF Montreal 31%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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