DC United 1-3 Inter Miami — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.11
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.06
6+ Goals
13%
9.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
11%
4.5
X/2
10%
7.87
X/X
16%
5.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
10%
5.47
2/X
5%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter Miami EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.74/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.38
+22% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.4 Crosses 12.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Inter Miami
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.03 xG 0.70
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
330 Passes 303
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.07.2023 DC United DC United 2-2 HT 0-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
04.06.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 1-2 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
19.09.2022 DC United DC United 2-3 HT 1-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
15.05.2022 Inter Miami Inter Miami 2-2 HT 2-1 DC United DC United ABD
20.06.2021 DC United DC United 1-0 HT 0-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
30.05.2021 Inter Miami Inter Miami 0-3 HT 0-2 DC United DC United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
1-3
AWAY Inter Miami
1.42 xG 2.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
281 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH DC United vs Inter Miami
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter Miami got the better of DC United 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was DC United at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, DC United had 48% of the ball to Inter Miami's 52%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.42 to 2.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, DC United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for DC United and 1.33 for Inter Miami.

What was the final score of DC United vs Inter Miami?

DC United 1-3 Inter Miami in the USA - Major League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs Inter Miami?

Before kick-off our model rated a DC United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split DC United 46%, draw 27%, Inter Miami 27%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (DC United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (DC United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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