Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Sydney — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒07:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
9.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.26
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
9%
6.48
X/2
14%
5.13
X/X
10%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✓
7%
29.5
2/2
21%
3.07
2/X
5%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Sydney EU Bookmakers 45%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.40/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.32
-6% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +40%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 83%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
15.0 Crosses 19.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sydney
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
367 Passes 454
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
29.12.2023 Sydney Sydney 3-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.03.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
07.01.2023 Sydney Sydney 0-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
19.02.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 1-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
19.12.2021 Sydney Sydney 2-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
08.02.2021 Sydney Sydney 2-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
2-1
AWAY Sydney
1.62 xG 1.16
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
266 Passes 399
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix squeezed past Sydney 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sydney at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 43% of the ball to Sydney's 57%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.62 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sydney led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.33 for Sydney.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney?

Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Sydney in the Australia - A-League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 34%, draw 25%, Sydney 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sydney) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sydney) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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