Brisbane Roar 1-2 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 16 Mar 2024

Brisbane Roar
1-2 HT 1-2
Macarthur
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.89
Over 2.5
55%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.39
No
48%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.84
2-3 Goals
37%
2.17
4-5 Goals
25%
2.48
6+ Goals
14%
4.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.33
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.82
X/2
8%
8.44
X/X
15%
6.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.3
2/2
15%
5.0
2/X
6%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.3 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
31%
+13.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
69%
-13.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
68%
-16.1pp
48%
BTTS No
32%
+16.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -12%
1.62/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/2.06
-21% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
22.1 Crosses 22.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Macarthur
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.55 xG 1.62
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
445 Passes 347
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.01.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-3 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
21.10.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
05.03.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 3-2 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
08.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
15.04.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
13.02.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-1 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Brisbane Roar 1-2 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-2
AWAY Macarthur
2.57 xG 0.97
58% Ball Possession 42%
22 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
449 Passes 302
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 23
38 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur squeezed past Brisbane Roar 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 58% of the ball to Macarthur's 42%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 2.57 to 0.97 — on chances, Brisbane Roar could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.67 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur?

Brisbane Roar 1-2 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 44%, draw 26%, Macarthur 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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