FC Minsk 0-1 BATE Borisov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
46%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.08
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.8
6+ Goals
12%
16.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.8 — our 24% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
27%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+8.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
46%
Away Win
57%
-11.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.4pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Minsk EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY BATE Borisov EU Bookmakers 61%
+14% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
0.83/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.70
-16% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +18%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 455 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Minsk
1W-3D-2L
AWAY BATE Borisov
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.10.2023 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
08.04.2023 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-2 HT 0-1 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
06.11.2022 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
09.07.2022 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-2 HT 2-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
15.08.2021 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
11.04.2021 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-2 HT 0-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Minsk
0-1
AWAY BATE Borisov
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Minsk vs BATE Borisov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BATE Borisov edged past FC Minsk 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had BATE Borisov as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Minsk had 55% of the ball to BATE Borisov's 45%, shots finished 7-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BATE Borisov led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Minsk and 1.83 for BATE Borisov.

What was the final score of FC Minsk vs BATE Borisov?

FC Minsk 0-1 BATE Borisov in the Belarus - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Minsk vs BATE Borisov?

Before kick-off our model rated an BATE Borisov win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split FC Minsk 27%, draw 27%, BATE Borisov 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BATE Borisov) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BATE Borisov) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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