Slavia Sofia 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒13:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.59
Over 2.5
55%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.99
No
39%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-7.2pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
59%
-13.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
41%
+13.6pp
61%
BTTS Yes
46%
+14.5pp
39%
BTTS No
54%
-14.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slavia Sofia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.61/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.96
-44% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slavia Sofia
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 HT 0-0 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia BUL1
02.05.2023 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia 1-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slavia Sofia
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv squeezed past Slavia Sofia 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 29%) promised a tight game; Lokomotiv Plovdiv found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Slavia Sofia had 53% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 47%, shots finished 14-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Slavia Sofia and 1.50 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Slavia Sofia 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slavia Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Slavia Sofia 39%, draw 32%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Slavia Sofia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Slavia Sofia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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