LDU Quito 1-2 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +23%
1.67/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.34
-19% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
365 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
19.8 Crosses 11.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LDU Quito
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Aucas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.47 xG 1.32
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
347 Passes 192
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.08.2023 Aucas Aucas 0-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
05.03.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-1 HT 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
07.08.2022 Aucas Aucas 1-1 HT 1-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
20.03.2022 LDU Quito LDU Quito 4-4 HT 1-2 Aucas Aucas EKV1
01.11.2021 Aucas Aucas 1-0 HT 1-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
17.05.2021 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-3 HT 1-3 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LDU Quito
1-2
AWAY Aucas
0.94 xG 1.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
271 Passes 197
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH LDU Quito vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas squeezed past LDU Quito 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was LDU Quito at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, LDU Quito had 57% of the ball to Aucas's 43%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.94 to 1.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for LDU Quito and 1.67 for Aucas.

What was the final score of LDU Quito vs Aucas?

LDU Quito 1-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LDU Quito vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated a LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split LDU Quito 48%, draw 28%, Aucas 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
16 Mar 2024
00:30 Macara vs Libertad Analysis →
03:00 Independiente Del Valle vs Cumbaya Analysis →
21:00 Mushuc Runa vs Imbabura Analysis →