Kagoshima United 4-2 JEF United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 16 Mar 2024

Kagoshima United
4-2 HT 3-1
JEF United
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2024

Kagoshima United vs JEF United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 26% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+5.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kagoshima United v JEF United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY JEF United EU Bookmakers 53%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -24%
0.98/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.68
-8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -36%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
284 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.3

Kagoshima United vs JEF United Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY JEF United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.03.2024 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-0 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JLK

Kagoshima United 4-2 JEF United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
4-2
AWAY JEF United
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs JEF United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United beat JEF United 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was JEF United at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 42% of the ball to JEF United's 58%, shots finished 10-12.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs JEF United?

Kagoshima United 4-2 JEF United in the Japan - J2 League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs JEF United?

Before kick-off our model rated an JEF United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 32%, draw 24%, JEF United 44%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (JEF United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (JEF United) ✓ BTTS Yes
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