Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 16 Mar 2024

Alianza Petrolera
1-1 HT 1-1
Deportivo Pasto
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alianza Petrolera v Deportivo Pasto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 27%
+13% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.48/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.34
+3% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
20.6 Crosses 12.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.08 xG 1.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
300 Passes 272
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.07.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
05.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
02.06.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
10.03.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
28.08.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
02.03.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL

Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Deportivo Pasto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-1
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.65 xG 1.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
292 Passes 289
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera and Deportivo Pasto couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Petrolera at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 50% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 50%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 0.65 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 0.50 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto?

Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 43%, draw 29%, Deportivo Pasto 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alianza Petrolera), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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