BFA 1-0 Garliava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

BFA
1-0 HT 0-0
Garliava
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+5.0pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.5pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFA EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Garliava EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.61/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.67
+10% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFA
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Garliava
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2023 BFA BFA 2-0 HT 1-0 Garliava Garliava LIT1
01.07.2023 Garliava Garliava 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
26.08.2022 Garliava Garliava 0-3 HT 0-1 BFA BFA LIT1
POST-MATCH BFA vs Garliava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFA squeezed past Garliava 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day BFA made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, BFA had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFA and 0.33 for Garliava.

What was the final score of BFA vs Garliava?

BFA 1-0 Garliava in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFA vs Garliava?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split BFA 40%, draw 24%, Garliava 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFA), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BFA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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