Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2025

Heidenheim
3-1 HT 1-0
Holstein Kiel
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.67
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.7
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
10%
4.87
X/2
10%
7.52
X/X
13%
4.99
2/1
8%
23.0
2/2
11%
5.31
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.54/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.77
+30% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
16.7 Crosses 25.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0

Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.23 xG 0.94
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
276 Passes 399
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
23.04.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-0 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
16.10.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
23.04.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
21.11.2021 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
06.04.2021 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-0 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2

Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
3-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.52 xG 1.52
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
237 Passes 450
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim beat Holstein Kiel 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heidenheim as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 38% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 62%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.52 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Heidenheim and 1.00 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?

Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 44%, draw 28%, Holstein Kiel 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidenheim), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
16 Mar 2025
00:00 Bochum vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →
21:30 Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen Analysis →