Stuttgart 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.33 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.76
1/2 EV+ ✓
9%
25.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
11%
6.84
X/2
13%
5.16
X/X
11%
4.59
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
22%
3.06
2/X
6%
12.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
44%
Away Win
42%
+2.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.71/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.33
+41% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
17.9 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.92
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
440 Passes 401
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.11.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
17.08.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart ALSK
27.04.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
06.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AFK
10.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
14.05.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
3-4
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
2.34 xG 1.74
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 10
270 Passes 351
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 35
7 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past Stuttgart 4-3 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stuttgart had 43% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 57%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 2.34 to 1.74 — on chances, Stuttgart could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stuttgart and 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Stuttgart 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 30%, draw 26%, Bayer Leverkusen 44%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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