Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2024

Bayer Leverkusen
2-2 HT 0-0
Stuttgart
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.23
Over 2.5
62%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
16%
8.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.29
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.36
X/2
9%
8.7
X/X
7%
5.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.95
2/2
8%
5.93
2/X
8%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.95 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
52%
+3.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-2.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.8pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 28%
-12% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.87/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.51
-12% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
21.4 Crosses 15.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Stuttgart
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.72 xG 1.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
436 Passes 427
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AFK
10.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
14.05.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.11.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
12.02.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-2 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
19.09.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-3 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-2
AWAY Stuttgart
1.43 xG 1.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
392 Passes 426
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayer Leverkusen at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 49% of the ball to Stuttgart's 51%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.43 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.17 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 56%, draw 23%, Stuttgart 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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