Freiburg 1-2 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2024

Freiburg
1-2 HT 1-0
Wolfsburg
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.69
6+ Goals
10%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 28% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.14
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
17%
4.81
X/2
14%
6.23
X/X
11%
4.59
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.51
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -13%
1.74/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.27
+5% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
301 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
18.7 Crosses 19.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.18 xG 1.45
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
285 Passes 400
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.07.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg HAZ
19.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
21.01.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 6-0 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.03.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 3-2 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
23.10.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Freiburg 1-2 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-2
AWAY Wolfsburg
2.25 xG 0.53
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
320 Passes 309
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg nicked a narrow win over Freiburg 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Freiburg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Freiburg had 51% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 49%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.25 to 0.53 — on chances, Freiburg could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Freiburg and 1.83 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Wolfsburg?

Freiburg 1-2 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 41%, draw 24%, Wolfsburg 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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