Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2024

Augsburg
0-3 HT 0-0
Werder Bremen
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.38
X/2
9%
9.3
X/X
13%
6.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.05
2/2
12%
6.11
2/X
8%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.05 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.9pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.31/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.56
-29% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
410 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
24.8 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Augsburg vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 1.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
263 Passes 381
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
04.03.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
09.09.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-1 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
15.05.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.01.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
01.02.2020 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
0-3
AWAY Werder Bremen
0.59 xG 2.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
313 Passes 255
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 32
23 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen cruised past Augsburg 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Augsburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Augsburg had 54% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 46%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 0.59 to 2.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Augsburg and 1.00 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?

Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 47%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 27%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Augsburg), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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