RB Leipzig 4-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.74
Over 2.5
59%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.64
2-3 Goals
41%
2.14
4-5 Goals
28%
2.5
6+ Goals
10%
5.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.94
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
21%
4.29
X/2
7%
10.95
X/X
10%
7.07
2/1
7%
18.8
2/2
7%
6.88
2/X
5%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-0.9pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.6pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
33%
+8.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
67%
-8.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.4pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
2.11/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.59
+6% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
468 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
17.9 Crosses 7.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.25 xG 0.86
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
380 Passes 417
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
05.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
03.03.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 2-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
10.09.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.04.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-4 HT 0-2 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
06.11.2021 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
4-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.61 xG 1.67
39% Ball Possession 61%
21 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
293 Passes 479
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
38 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig cruised past Borussia Dortmund 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 39% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 61%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 2.61 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?

RB Leipzig 4-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 57%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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