Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Super Cup, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.71
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
11%
4.3
X/2
8%
9.18
X/X
15%
5.84
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.85
2/2
11%
6.28
2/X
8%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.85 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.1pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Stuttgart
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.72 xG 1.29
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
466 Passes 419
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
06.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AFK
10.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
14.05.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.11.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
12.02.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-2 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-2
AWAY Stuttgart
2.35 xG 1.39
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
212 Passes 477
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
25 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 34% of the ball to Stuttgart's 66%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 2.35 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.33 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart in the Germany - Super Cup on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 46%, draw 29%, Stuttgart 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →