Holstein Kiel 1-0 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 2 Nov 2024

📅02/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.32
2-3 Goals
34%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.56
6+ Goals
12%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 28% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.42
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
11%
5.19
X/2
11%
5.84
X/X
13%
4.63
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
21%
4.04
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-5.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+5.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
331 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.12 xG 1.21
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
420 Passes 275
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.04.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-0 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
16.10.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
23.04.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
21.11.2021 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
06.04.2021 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-0 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
21.11.2020 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-2 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-0
AWAY Heidenheim
1.09 xG 1.23
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
242 Passes 305
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel squeezed past Heidenheim 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Holstein Kiel made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 45% of the ball to Heidenheim's 55%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.09 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.67 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Heidenheim?

Holstein Kiel 1-0 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 34%, draw 26%, Heidenheim 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✗ Over 2.5
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