Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Borussia Dortmund v RB Leipzig — Team-Based Signals
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-3
HT 1-1
RB Leipzig
AL1
2-0
HT 1-0
Borussia Dortmund
AFK
2-1
HT 2-0
RB Leipzig
AL1
3-0
HT 2-0
Borussia Dortmund
AL1
1-4
HT 0-2
RB Leipzig
AL1
Borussia Dortmund 2-1 RB Leipzig — Actual Match Statistics
Borussia Dortmund squeezed past RB Leipzig 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 56% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 44%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.21 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Borussia Dortmund's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.83 for RB Leipzig.
What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig?
Borussia Dortmund 2-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig?
Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 45%, draw 24%, RB Leipzig 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.