Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 Waldhof Mannheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.32
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 25% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.81
1/2
9%
28.0
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
9%
5.68
X/2
8%
5.6
X/X
8%
4.66
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
16%
3.7
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Waldhof Mannheim EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.34/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.18
-4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
17.6 Crosses 21.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Waldhof Mannheim
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
460 Passes 240
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim 3-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
18.05.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 1-0 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim AL3
16.12.2023 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim 3-0 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
10.02.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 2-0 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim AL3
10.08.2022 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim 1-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
0-1
AWAY Waldhof Mannheim
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 4
356 Passes 280
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Waldhof Mannheim squeezed past Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Erzgebirge Aue at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 56% of the ball to Waldhof Mannheim's 44%, shots finished 7-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Waldhof Mannheim led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.60 for Waldhof Mannheim.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim?

Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 Waldhof Mannheim in the Germany - 3rd Division on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 42%, draw 25%, Waldhof Mannheim 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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