Alvarado 1-1 Almagro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
32%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
Over 2.5
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.33
No
58%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.6pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.1pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.5pp
58%
BTTS No
61%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alvarado EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Almagro EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.24/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.44
+2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -25%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alvarado
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Almagro
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
4 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
24.09.2023 Almagro Almagro 1-1 HT 0-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
14.05.2023 Alvarado Alvarado 0-0 HT 0-0 Almagro Almagro ARJPBN
28.08.2022 Almagro Almagro 1-0 HT 0-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Alvarado vs Almagro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alvarado and Almagro shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Almagro led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Alvarado and 0.67 for Almagro.

What was the final score of Alvarado vs Almagro?

Alvarado 1-1 Almagro in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alvarado vs Almagro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alvarado win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alvarado 38%, draw 30%, Almagro 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alvarado), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alvarado) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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