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Melbourne City (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne City (K) v Adelaide United (K) — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne City (K) vs Adelaide United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
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1-0
HT 1-0
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Adelaide United (K)
AVUSTW
1-1
HT 0-0
Adelaide United (K)
AVUSTW
Melbourne City (K) 4-3 Adelaide United (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City (K) squeezed past Adelaide United (K) 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne City (K) as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Melbourne City (K) had 55% of the ball to Adelaide United (K)'s 45%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.79 to 1.66.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Melbourne City (K) had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Melbourne City (K) and 0.60 for Adelaide United (K).
What was the final score of Melbourne City (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?
Melbourne City (K) 4-3 Adelaide United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne City (K) vs Adelaide United (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City (K) 49%, draw 28%, Adelaide United (K) 22%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City (K)), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.