Sydney 1-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 16 Mar 2025

Sydney
1-1 HT 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.63
Over 2.5
62%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.7
No
40%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.89
2-3 Goals
36%
2.06
4-5 Goals
30%
2.49
6+ Goals
16%
5.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.35
X/1
14%
4.04
X/2
6%
17.2
X/X
6%
8.4
2/1
9%
19.25
2/2
11%
13.25
2/X
11%
21.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
71%
-14.5pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.4pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+10.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
34%
+3.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
66%
-3.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
55%
+5.5pp
40%
BTTS No
45%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sydney v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 15%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
2.18/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.88
+28% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
462 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
37.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
18.1 Crosses 9.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.73 xG 1.13
58% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
473 Passes 321
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.01.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-0 HT 0-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
16.03.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 0-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
29.12.2023 Sydney Sydney 3-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.03.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
07.01.2023 Sydney Sydney 0-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
19.02.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 1-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS

Sydney 1-1 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
1-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.18 xG 0.71
72% Ball Possession 28%
21 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
570 Passes 180
89% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sydney and Wellington Phoenix couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sydney at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Sydney had 72% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 28%, shots finished 21-4, expected goals 1.18 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sydney and 1.00 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix?

Sydney 1-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Sydney 56%, draw 22%, Wellington Phoenix 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sydney), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sydney) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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