Montpellier 0-2 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
2.93
6+ Goals
13%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.23
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
14%
5.53
X/2
9%
6.45
X/X
11%
5.14
2/1
7%
23.85
2/2
12%
4.09
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-2.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.59/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.49
+11% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 81%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
25.0 Crosses 22.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 1.53
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
302 Passes 359
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
05.02.2022 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 3-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
12.09.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 2-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
02.05.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 1-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
01.11.2020 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
09.02.2020 Montpellier Montpellier 1-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne got the better of Montpellier 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Montpellier at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Montpellier and 1.00 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Saint-Etienne?

Montpellier 0-2 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 1 on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 43%, draw 26%, Saint-Etienne 30%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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