Lyon 4-2 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.3
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.58
6+ Goals
11%
6.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.35
X/1
16%
3.89
X/2
5%
19.0
X/X
11%
8.46
2/1 EV+ ✓
7%
20.4
2/2
8%
15.55
2/X
4%
23.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.4 — our 7% vs market 2.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Lyon win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
72%
-11.4pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.1pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
2.22/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.76
-6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +18%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
473 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
19.2 Crosses 15.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Le Havre
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.13 xG 0.98
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
471 Passes 306
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 0-4 Lyon Lyon FR1
14.01.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 3-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
17.09.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
15.02.2009 Lyon Lyon 3-1 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
20.09.2008 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
05.04.2003 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
4-2
AWAY Le Havre
3.98 xG 1.70
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
552 Passes 235
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon saw off Le Havre 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Lyon had 67% of the ball to Le Havre's 33%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 3.98 to 1.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lyon and 0.83 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Le Havre?

Lyon 4-2 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Lyon 61%, draw 21%, Le Havre 18%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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