Le Havre 3-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Jan 2024

Le Havre
3-1 HT 1-0
Lyon
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Le Havre vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.62
Over 2.5
53%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.64
6+ Goals
12%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.58
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
16%
5.94
X/2
13%
4.83
X/X
9%
3.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
34.0
2/2
20%
3.42
2/X
5%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 11% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+6.9pp
23%
Draw
29%
-6.4pp
39%
Away Win
39%
-0.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
58%
-11.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
42%
+11.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.2pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Le Havre v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.51/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.47
+80% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
14.6 Crosses 15.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Le Havre vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Lyon
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.78 xG 1.49
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
308 Passes 458
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 44
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
15.02.2009 Lyon Lyon 3-1 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
20.09.2008 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
05.04.2003 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
07.11.2002 Le Havre Le Havre 1-2 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Le Havre 3-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
3-1
AWAY Lyon
1.18 xG 0.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
369 Passes 518
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre beat Lyon 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Le Havre made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Le Havre had 42% of the ball to Lyon's 58%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.18 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Le Havre and 1.60 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Lyon?

Le Havre 3-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Havre win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 39%, draw 23%, Lyon 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/23/39) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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