Metz 0-1 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Jan 2024

Metz
0-1 HT 0-1
Toulouse
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Metz vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.86
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.37
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
11%
13.95
X/1
12%
5.66
X/2
17%
4.94
X/X
14%
3.81
2/1
11%
34.0
2/2
16%
3.61
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-2.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+1.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Metz v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +10%
0.93/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.15
-19% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 81%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
18.0 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Metz vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Toulouse
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.03 xG 1.69
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
317 Passes 384
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 3-0 HT 2-0 Metz Metz FR1
28.09.2019 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
03.03.2018 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.11.2017 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
14.05.2017 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.12.2016 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FRLK

Metz 0-1 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
0-1
AWAY Toulouse
0.71 xG 0.96
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
245 Passes 442
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Metz vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse squeezed past Metz 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Toulouse found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Metz had 39% of the ball to Toulouse's 61%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 0.71 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Metz and 1.33 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Metz vs Toulouse?

Metz 0-1 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Metz 32%, draw 30%, Toulouse 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
14 Jan 2024
15:00 Lille vs Lorient Analysis →
17:00 Brest vs Montpellier Analysis →
17:00 Nantes vs Clermont Analysis →
19:05 Le Havre vs Lyon Analysis →
22:45 Lens vs PSG Analysis →