Independiente Rivadavia 0-1 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 16 Apr 2024

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.6
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.31
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
10%
15.55
X/1
10%
7.43
X/2
14%
4.07
X/X
9%
3.99
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.74
2/X
11%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+3.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-6.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.5pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Rivadavia EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 54%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
0.81/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.13
-28% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
239 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 79%
11.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
24.9 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Rivadavia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.16 xG 0.89
28% Ball Possession 72%
6 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
165 Passes 587
63% Pass Accuracy 85%
3 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.06.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia ARJK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Rivadavia
0-1
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.43 xG 2.12
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 3
221 Passes 254
69% Pass Accuracy 74%
10 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Rivadavia vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield squeezed past Independiente Rivadavia 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Velez Sarsfield as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Independiente Rivadavia had 49% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 51%, shots finished 10-22, expected goals 0.43 to 2.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Velez Sarsfield's control.

What was the final score of Independiente Rivadavia vs Velez Sarsfield?

Independiente Rivadavia 0-1 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Premier League on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Rivadavia vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated an Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Independiente Rivadavia 28%, draw 30%, Velez Sarsfield 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Sarsfield), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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