Newcastle United 5-0 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 16 Apr 2025

Newcastle United
5-0 HT 4-0
Crystal Palace
📅16/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.99
6+ Goals
12%
9.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.13
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.44
X/2
11%
10.15
X/X
14%
5.66
2/1
6%
21.7
2/2
11%
7.68
2/X
5%
15.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 35.0 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Crystal Palace — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
2.18/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.57
+23% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +29%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
36.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.7 Crosses 14.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Crystal Palace
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.62 xG 0.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
397 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.11.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-1 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
24.04.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
21.10.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-0 HT 3-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
21.01.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
09.11.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNLK
03.09.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP

Newcastle United 5-0 Crystal Palace — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
5-0
AWAY Crystal Palace
1.54 xG 2.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
454 Passes 281
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United swept aside Crystal Palace 5-0. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 60% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 40%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.54 to 2.00 — on chances, Crystal Palace could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Newcastle United and 0.50 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace?

Newcastle United 5-0 Crystal Palace in the England - Premier League on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 47%, draw 25%, Crystal Palace 28%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5
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