Cuiaba 2-1 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.59
Over
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.38
2-3
43%
1.74
4-5
20%
4.61
6+
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.7pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.4pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.24/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.45
+37% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / +9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 82%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
18.8 Crosses 12.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.26 xG 1.38
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
314 Passes 389
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.07.2024 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
14.04.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-0 HT 3-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
07.12.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
16.08.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 1-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
19.09.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-2 HT 2-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
30.05.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
2-1
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.01 xG 1.19
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 8
308 Passes 318
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cuiaba nicked a narrow win over Atletico Paranaense 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Cuiaba made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cuiaba had 49% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 51%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.01 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cuiaba and 1.83 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?

Cuiaba 2-1 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 32%, draw 31%, Atletico Paranaense 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5
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