Cuiaba 1-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.51
Over 2.5
38%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.26
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.45
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.44
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.4
X/1
13%
4.64
X/2
9%
6.02
X/X
14%
3.63
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
14%
4.95
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.6pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.17/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.46
-31% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
23.5 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.07 xG 1.21
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
288 Passes 399
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-0 HT 3-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
07.12.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
16.08.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 1-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
19.09.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-2 HT 2-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
30.05.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
04.12.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
1-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.51 xG 2.09
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 2
363 Passes 388
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 26
38 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense nicked a narrow win over Cuiaba 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Atletico Paranaense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cuiaba had 50% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 50%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.51 to 2.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cuiaba and 1.67 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?

Cuiaba 1-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cuiaba win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 37%, draw 30%, Atletico Paranaense 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cuiaba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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