Gremio 1-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.68
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.38
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 32% vs market 31.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.83
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
13%
4.35
X/2
9%
7.22
X/X
15%
4.07
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
10%
5.77
2/X
8%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
1.43/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.33
+14% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
17.5 Crosses 19.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.37 xG 0.62
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 Passes 361
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.12.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
06.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
11.09.2022 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
03.06.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
06.12.2020 Gremio Gremio 4-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.80 xG 0.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
169 Passes 129
62% Pass Accuracy 53%
39 Box Touches 8
29 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Vasco da Gama 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gremio had 53% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 47%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.80 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gremio and 0.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Vasco da Gama?

Gremio 1-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gremio 43%, draw 30%, Vasco da Gama 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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