Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Jul 2024

📅29/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.72
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.15
6+ Goals
9%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
20%
3.88
X/2
9%
9.9
X/X
18%
4.37
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
9%
8.34
2/X
7%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
55%
-10.3pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.8pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.56/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.34
+8% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.6 Crosses 16.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Corinthians
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.35 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
419 Passes 296
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
09.07.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
01.06.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
18.05.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
13.11.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-1
AWAY Corinthians
1.93 xG 1.12
68% Ball Possession 32%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
521 Passes 197
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
11 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Corinthians 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 68% of the ball to Corinthians's 32%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.93 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 0.67 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians?

Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 44%, draw 32%, Corinthians 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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