Aucas 2-1 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.54/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.31
+52% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
281 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
18.8 Crosses 14.6
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.12 xG 1.28
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
220 Passes 304
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
07.03.2025 Uni. Catolica 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas CSA
09.11.2024 Uni. Catolica 3-2 HT 2-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
19.05.2024 Aucas Aucas 2-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
18.08.2023 Uni. Catolica 2-2 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
19.03.2023 Aucas Aucas 4-1 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
05.09.2022 Uni. Catolica 1-2 HT 1-2 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
2-1
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.05 xG 0.70
43% Ball Possession 57%
21 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
246 Passes 351
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas nicked a narrow win over Uni. Catolica 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Aucas found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Aucas had 43% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 57%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.05 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aucas and 1.50 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Uni. Catolica?

Aucas 2-1 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Aucas 38%, draw 27%, Uni. Catolica 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aucas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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