Uni. Catolica 3-2 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 9 Nov 2024

Uni. Catolica
3-2 HT 2-1
Aucas
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Uni. Catolica vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-11.4pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.2pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Uni. Catolica v Aucas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +17%
1.85/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.51
+17% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 76%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
19.8 Crosses 12.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.4

Uni. Catolica vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uni. Catolica
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aucas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.21 xG 1.52
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
336 Passes 212
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Aucas Aucas 2-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
18.08.2023 Uni. Catolica 2-2 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
19.03.2023 Aucas Aucas 4-1 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
05.09.2022 Uni. Catolica 1-2 HT 1-2 Aucas Aucas EKV1
21.04.2022 Aucas Aucas 3-2 HT 1-2 Uni. Catolica EKV1
17.10.2021 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 1-0 Uni. Catolica EKV1

Uni. Catolica 3-2 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
3-2
AWAY Aucas
2.60 xG 0.49
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
262 Passes 239
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica edged past Aucas 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Uni. Catolica as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 51% of the ball to Aucas's 49%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.60 to 0.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Uni. Catolica's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Uni. Catolica and 2.33 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs Aucas?

Uni. Catolica 3-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 48%, draw 26%, Aucas 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✓ BTTS Yes
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