Aucas 2-2 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 19 May 2024

Aucas
2-2 HT 0-1
Uni. Catolica
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Aucas vs Uni. Catolica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
13%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aucas v Uni. Catolica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 43%
+13% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.57/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.14
+67% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
249 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 80%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
15.6 Crosses 14.8
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Aucas vs Uni. Catolica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.23
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
209 Passes 334
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.08.2023 Uni. Catolica 2-2 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
19.03.2023 Aucas Aucas 4-1 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
05.09.2022 Uni. Catolica 1-2 HT 1-2 Aucas Aucas EKV1
21.04.2022 Aucas Aucas 3-2 HT 1-2 Uni. Catolica EKV1
17.10.2021 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 1-0 Uni. Catolica EKV1
01.05.2021 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1

Aucas 2-2 Uni. Catolica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
2-2
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.89 xG 1.44
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
239 Passes 248
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas and Uni. Catolica shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aucas had 50% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 50%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 1.89 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Aucas and 1.50 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Uni. Catolica?

Aucas 2-2 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Aucas 39%, draw 25%, Uni. Catolica 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aucas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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