BFC Daugavpils 4-0 Metta / LU Riga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
26%
X/2
12%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
5%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+1.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 22%
+11% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -18%
1.55/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.64
+15% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
351 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
22.6 Crosses 19.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.57 xG 1.07
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
223 Passes 291
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.04.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
29.09.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-2 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
10.07.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
18.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
07.04.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 3-2 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
06.11.2022 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 2-3 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4-0
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
1.65 xG 1.51
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
281 Passes 342
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils swept aside Metta / LU Riga 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 45% of the ball to Metta / LU Riga's 55%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.65 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.33 for Metta / LU Riga.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

BFC Daugavpils 4-0 Metta / LU Riga in the Latvia - Virsliga on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 53%, draw 26%, Metta / LU Riga 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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