Örgryte 5-1 Varbergs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 16 May 2025

Örgryte
5-1 HT 2-0
Varbergs
📅16/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2025

Örgryte vs Varbergs Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 29% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.42
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
23%
5.48
X/2
14%
6.21
X/X
13%
4.88
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.15
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Örgryte v Varbergs — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Örgryte EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.63/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.09
+13% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
348 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Örgryte vs Varbergs Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Örgryte
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Varbergs
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Örgryte Örgryte 3-3 HT 3-0 Varbergs Varbergs İSÇ2
11.05.2024 Varbergs Varbergs 1-3 HT 1-2 Örgryte Örgryte İSÇ2

Örgryte 5-1 Varbergs — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Örgryte
5-1
AWAY Varbergs
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Örgryte vs Varbergs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Örgryte ran out comfortable winners over Varbergs 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Örgryte found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Örgryte had 52% of the ball to Varbergs's 48%, shots finished 20-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Örgryte had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Örgryte and 2.00 for Varbergs.

What was the final score of Örgryte vs Varbergs?

Örgryte 5-1 Varbergs in the Sweden - Superettan on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Örgryte vs Varbergs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Örgryte win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Örgryte 40%, draw 26%, Varbergs 34%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Örgryte) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Örgryte) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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