Örgryte 3-3 Varbergs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.93
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
13%
5.1
X/2
15%
6.73
X/X
10%
5.3
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
14%
4.32
2/X
8%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Örgryte EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.44/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.40
-6% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Örgryte
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Varbergs
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Varbergs Varbergs 1-3 HT 1-2 Örgryte Örgryte İSÇ2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Örgryte
3-3
AWAY Varbergs
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Örgryte vs Varbergs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Örgryte and Varbergs shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Örgryte had 46% of the ball to Varbergs's 54%, shots finished 19-16.

What was the final score of Örgryte vs Varbergs?

Örgryte 3-3 Varbergs in the Sweden - Superettan on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Örgryte vs Varbergs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Örgryte win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Örgryte 39%, draw 24%, Varbergs 37%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Örgryte) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Örgryte) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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