Alianza Atletico 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 16 May 2025

📅16/05/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Atletico EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +1%
1.40/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.55
+20% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
266 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 71%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.7 Crosses 13.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Atletico
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.27 xG 1.01
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
190 Passes 252
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
29.02.2024 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 3-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
01.10.2023 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
21.05.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 3-2 HT 2-1 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Atletico
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
243 Passes 175
72% Pass Accuracy 64%
POST-MATCH Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Atletico squeezed past Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alianza Atletico as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Alianza Atletico had 55% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 45%, shots finished 12-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Alianza Atletico had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alianza Atletico and 0.75 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Alianza Atletico 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Atletico win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alianza Atletico 46%, draw 27%, Deportivo Garcilaso 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Atletico), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Atletico) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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