Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Botafogo SP v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-0
Botafogo SP
BR2
0-3
HT 0-2
Vila Nova
BR2
0-2
HT 0-2
Botafogo SP
BR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Vila Nova
BR2
Botafogo SP 1-0 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics
Botafogo SP nicked a narrow win over Vila Nova 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 32% / 28% — and on the day Botafogo SP made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.
On the day, Botafogo SP had 36% of the ball to Vila Nova's 64%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 0.84 to 1.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vila Nova.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Botafogo SP and 1.75 for Vila Nova.
What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
Botafogo SP 1-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?
Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo SP win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Botafogo SP 40%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo SP), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.