Botafogo SP 1-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
69%
1.48
Over
31%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.16
No
64%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
41%
2.15
2-3
38%
1.81
4-5
14%
5.84
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 69%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.4pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.3pp
69%
Under 2.5
64%
+5.4pp
31%
Over 2.5
36%
-5.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.1pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.02/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.10
-40% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
22.6 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo SP
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.72 xG 1.61
53% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
343 Passes 306
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.10.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 3-1 HT 2-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
24.06.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-3 HT 0-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
18.09.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-2 HT 0-2 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
19.05.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo SP
1-0
AWAY Vila Nova
0.84 xG 1.39
36% Ball Possession 64%
17 Total Shots 16
11 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 1
183 Passes 402
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo SP nicked a narrow win over Vila Nova 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 32% / 28% — and on the day Botafogo SP made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Botafogo SP had 36% of the ball to Vila Nova's 64%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 0.84 to 1.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vila Nova.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Botafogo SP and 1.75 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

Botafogo SP 1-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo SP win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Botafogo SP 40%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo SP), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo SP) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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