Ituano 3-5 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.56
Over
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.42
2-3
42%
1.78
4-5
15%
4.95
6+
7%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.42 — our 36% vs market 34.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+0.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.2pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.09/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/0.89
-2% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 80%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
21.4 Crosses 35.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Paysandu
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 3
16.10.2021 Ituano Ituano 3-1 HT 2-1 Paysandu Paysandu BRE3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
3-5
AWAY Paysandu
2.50 xG 2.10
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 4
246 Passes 318
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu beat Ituano 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Paysandu found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ituano had 46% of the ball to Paysandu's 54%, shots finished 17-18, expected goals 2.50 to 2.10.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Paysandu?

Ituano 3-5 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Ituano 37%, draw 29%, Paysandu 34%. The final score 3-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ituano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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