Brusque 1-0 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.59
Over
37%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2-3
41%
4-5
16%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.1pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brusque EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 46%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
0.83/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.61
-25% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -46%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
20.4 Crosses 11.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brusque
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Ceara
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.04 xG 1.71
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
430 Passes 301
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2020 Ceara Ceara 5-1 HT 1-1 Brusque Brusque BRK
17.09.2020 Brusque Brusque 0-2 HT 0-1 Ceara Ceara BRK
08.02.2018 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brusque
1-0
AWAY Ceara
1.40 xG 0.85
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
219 Passes 218
66% Pass Accuracy 65%
12 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brusque vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brusque squeezed past Ceara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ceara at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Brusque had 49% of the ball to Ceara's 51%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.40 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ceara led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Brusque and 2.67 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Brusque vs Ceara?

Brusque 1-0 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brusque vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Brusque 29%, draw 27%, Ceara 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ceara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ceara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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