Defensor Sporting 1-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 26%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / -8%
1.98/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.28
+23% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Progreso
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Progreso Progreso 1-4 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
04.11.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 3-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URUK
26.10.2022 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URUK
11.02.2021 Progreso Progreso 3-3 HT 2-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
19.08.2020 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
06.12.2019 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-4 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
1-1
AWAY Progreso
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting and Progreso shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Defensor Sporting at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 56% of the ball to Progreso's 44%, shots finished 13-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.83 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?

Defensor Sporting 1-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 46%, draw 25%, Progreso 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Defensor Sporting) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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