Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 16 Jul 2026

📅16/07/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
55%
1.64
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.63
Over
54%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
23%
5.87
2-3
38%
2.04
4-5
27%
2.48
6+
12%
5.33
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.87 — our 23% vs market 11.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
4%
13.6
X/1
17%
4.55
X/2
9%
10.1
X/X
11%
6.86
2/1
7%
18.4
2/2
10%
6.73
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Valerenga win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
57%
-1.8pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.2pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
34%
+11.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
66%
-11.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.7pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valerenga EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalesund EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
2.03/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.58
+3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
37.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
23.0 Crosses 13.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valerenga
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Aalesund
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.26 xG 0.89
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
442 Passes 286
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2024 Valerenga Valerenga 4-1 HT 2-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR1
11.05.2024 Aalesund Aalesund 0-2 HT 0-1 Valerenga Valerenga NOR1
17.09.2023 Valerenga Valerenga 3-1 HT 1-1 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
10.04.2023 Aalesund Aalesund 0-1 HT 0-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
07.08.2022 Valerenga Valerenga 4-0 HT 0-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
19.06.2022 Aalesund Aalesund 2-2 HT 1-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valerenga
6-1
AWAY Aalesund
2.44 xG 1.68
22 Total Shots 19
10 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 7
324 Passes 374
31 Box Touches 36
17 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH Valerenga vs Aalesund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valerenga swept aside Aalesund 6-1. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valerenga as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 22-19, expected goals 2.44 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valerenga had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Valerenga and 0.67 for Aalesund.

What was the final score of Valerenga vs Aalesund?

Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund in the Norway - Eliteserien on 16/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valerenga vs Aalesund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valerenga win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Valerenga 55%, draw 22%, Aalesund 23%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valerenga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valerenga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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