Valerenga vs Aalesund Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Valerenga v Aalesund — Team-Based Signals
Valerenga vs Aalesund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-1
Aalesund
NOR
0-1
HT 0-0
Valerenga
NOR
4-0
HT 0-0
Aalesund
NOR
2-2
HT 1-0
Valerenga
NOR
Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund — Actual Match Statistics
Valerenga swept aside Aalesund 6-1. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valerenga as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, shots finished 22-19, expected goals 2.44 to 1.68.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valerenga had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Valerenga and 0.67 for Aalesund.
What was the final score of Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund in the Norway - Eliteserien on 16/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Before kick-off our model rated a Valerenga win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Valerenga 55%, draw 22%, Aalesund 23%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valerenga), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.