Celta Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.62
Over
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.57
2-3
42%
1.77
4-5
18%
4.6
6+
8%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.87
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.65
X/1
14%
4.39
X/2
16%
7.25
X/X
13%
3.89
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
10%
5.85
2/X
6%
14.25
Value flag · 1/X at 13.65 — our 11% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves The Market 29%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.44/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.40
-5% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 72%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
20.5 Crosses 18.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 1.36
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
401 Passes 280
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 3-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
28.09.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
07.05.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 4-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
27.11.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-2 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
04.04.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-3 HT 0-3 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.12.2020 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
0.83 xG 1.60
64% Ball Possession 36%
6 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
471 Passes 218
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Alaves 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Celta Vigo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 64% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 36%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.83 to 1.60 — on chances, Deportivo Alaves could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.00 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves?

Celta Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 38%, draw 30%, Deportivo Alaves 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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