Deportivo Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 27 Apr 2024

Deportivo Alaves
3-0 HT 0-0
Celta Vigo
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.6
Over 2.5
36%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.9
No
63%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.52
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.7
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.52 — our 37% vs market 33.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.55
X/1
16%
5.21
X/2
13%
5.55
X/X
17%
3.83
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
14%
4.16
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.8pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.3pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
49%
-11.7pp
63%
BTTS No
51%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Celta Vigo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -21%
1.24/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.54
-12% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
21.2 Crosses 15.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.17 xG 1.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
274 Passes 416
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
07.05.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 4-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
27.11.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-2 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
04.04.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-3 HT 0-3 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.12.2020 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
21.06.2020 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 6-0 HT 4-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1

Deportivo Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
3-0
AWAY Celta Vigo
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 3
191 Passes 440
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves swept aside Celta Vigo 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Alaves found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (63%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 37% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 63%, shots finished 16-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 3.00 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo?

Deportivo Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 35%, draw 32%, Celta Vigo 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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